The Importance of Property Rights

The New York Times discusses the diversity of revenue streams which support the Taliban in Afghanistan. In recent months, US forces have begun to express doubt over whether a policy to damage the opium trade will really hurt their finances.

Surprisingly, lessons can be learned from Peru’s experience fighting the drug trade and the ‘Shining Path’ guerilla movement in the early 1990s. In that case, the forces aligned against the government drew their power from an unlikely source.

Sharing Amongst Enemies

In his book Partitioning for Peace, Ivan Eland argues that division offers the best chance for peace in Iraq. He outlines lessons that can be learned from historical examples of partition.

However, he makes little of precisely how oil revenue is to be shared amongst the different peoples. Rather than divide the land and the oil by proxy, it would be much better to centrally process the oil and divide the revenue.

The Lies Obama Tells Himself

The Economist takes stock of the current situation in Afghanistan. President Hamid Karzai continues to disgrace himself and damage his country, with widespread accusations of foul play in the recent presidential elections. It remains to be seen whether he is successfully re-elected.

In another article, President Barack Obama continues to claim that victory in this conflict (a concept devoid of meaning) is critical to keep America safe. This has been and always will be a lie.

Towards a Nuclear Middle East

Within a matter of months, Iran could be in possession of nuclear weapons. The evidence for this was considered last week here. This is a state perfectly content to finance, train and arm with conventional weapons terrorist groups in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Lebanon and Palestine. This is a state with political discourse dominated by nationalism.

These are the two major impacts from Iran’s decision: nuclear proliferation, and the possibility of terrorist organisations obtaining weapons of mass destruction. It is often easy to forget these consequences and simply focus on the prospect of the Ayatollah with his finger on the button, hoping that mutually assured destruction will save us.

The Evidence Against Iran

Debate intensifies over Iran and their nuclear weapon program. President Obama has set a deadline for negotiation, but seems no closer to resolving the diplomatic gridlock that has perpetuated for so long.

The Iranian regime obstinately refuses to compromise their quest for nuclear energy, and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has the support of key political forces in this respect. He still denies that his state is seeking nuclear weapons. Should we believe him?

Time is Running Out

The New York Times reports on President Obama’s recent meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel. The US has effectively announced the limits of their willingness to negotiate with Iran, and seeks negotiation by the end of the year.

As the Iranian election approaches, current policy with respect to the nation is clearly failing. The last US administration’s failure to engage with them on a sufficient timetable has left the incoming President with too few options. The situation is becoming grim.

Afghanistan’s New Hope

The Economist reports on the introduction of the Afghan Public Protection Program (AP3). The US is hoping that what worked in Iraq can be applied to the very different problems in Afghanistan. They will be disappointed.

The problems in Afghanistan are rooted in a very different enemy, and the motivations of subscribing tribes to this new militia are decidedly different too. In addition, the support for these forces (although increasing in practical terms) is insufficient when compared to Iraq. The Taliban will not be defeated by passing the buck onto local militias.

Back in Iraq

The Washington Post reports militants have renewed their entry into Iraq through Syria. The developments come as diplomacy between the US and Syria are promising, suggesting the real motivation behind these movements. Meanwhile, violence in Iraq is lower than it has been since the summer of 2003. President Obama’s decision to renew economic and political sanctions against Damascus will threaten the progress made on both fronts.

The ability of Syria to make life difficult for America, was demonstrated by their removal of support for border control operations with Iraq last year after incursions into their territory. This should not be forgotten. Antagonism also tends to drive Syria towards its neighbour Iran. Even though this is clearly only a marriage of convenience, it should be avoided.

Tough Love

Israel will continue to place short-term security concerns ahead of the long-term prospects of peace, as long as the US tacitly consents by not objecting. If he forced their hand in diplomatic negotiation with Syria and Fatah, President Obama would be doing the Israeli people a favour. Strong words from Vice-President Joseph Biden before the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) bode well.

Considering the comments made by his President in the run-up to the election before that same committee, Vice President Joseph Biden’s remarks are a welcome dose of realism. Most notably, he declared that Israel must work towards a two-state solution. It seems obvious.

It’s Good to Talk?

President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan has publicly expressed in the past willingness to negotiate with the leader of the Taliban, Mullah Mohammed Omar, while guaranteeing his safety. The current planned alterations to American policy in the country could provide a unique opportunity for Afghanistan’s government to sell apparent ‘concessions’ to groups within the Taliban in exchange for their co-operation in reducing levels of violence.